Christopher writes:

…obviously the Republican Party did not do well in Colorado in 04 and 06. Given the atmosphere will not be any more kind in 08, (hope that changes), what is you assessment on the chances of a Schaffer win? I also know that you have some activist out there whose spending a ton of money, the name escapes me.

These are all good questions. Of course, it’s just my opinion (since I’m not aware of any polling at this point), but I believe Schaffer has a very good shot at the seat. Here are some of my considerations:

1) Just 4 years ago, Colorado had 2 Republican Senators, a Republican Governor, and both a Republican State Senate and Legislature. Our Electoral College votes went to President Bush both times. Though Colorado’s demographics may be changing a bit, we are still a fairly conservative state. I don’t believe 2 years is enough time for a state to change from red to blue.

2) You are right--Colorado has had a lot of out of state dollars coming in to support liberals and their causes. Though this is common for federal races, I believe outside support held a lot of sway in some of the key local elections.

3) In spite of out of state sponsorship, and a “wave” of Democratic success nationwide in ‘06, Colorado voters still handily rejected several liberal “poster” causes. These included solid passage of a state constitutional marriage amendment, rejection of a homosexual civil unions initiative, and rejection of a marijuana legalization initiative.

4) Bob Schaffer is a solid conservative with an established record. I think he’s someone core Republicans will be excited about in part because of his following through on his term limits pledge during his time in the Congress. I believe they’ll see him as someone they can trust. By the way, Senator Allard is stepping down because of a similar term limits pledge.

5) Schaffer actually ran for the Senate seat that Ken Salazar ultimately won. This is significant for a couple of reasons.

    -First, Schaffer had a tough primary challenger (Pete Coors) and both he and his challenger came out a little bloody. This likely contributed significantly to Coor’s defeat and Salazar’s win. Schaffer will almost certainly run unopposed this time around.

    -Secondly, Salazar campaigned as a moderate. However, during his 2 years in the Senate, he has consistently voted with the Dems on the most liberal causes. I think Colorado voters will think twice before sending another vote to Harry Reid.

6) The Colorado GOP has a new head, the same guy responsible for Tom Daschle’s defeat 4 years ago. See this link for details.

So, yes, Bob Schaffer has a good chance but only if he gets the support he deserves.